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Roubini: Baltics, Bulgaria next for devaluation

THIS PUBLICATION HAS 45 COMMENTS
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Dr. Doom clearly hasn't been reading Maris Lauri's analyst reports.

Devaluation would destroy's Estonia's good reputation. End of story. answer
~Count of Monte Kopli [05.02.2009, 09:50]
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Is there any running update of Estonia's currency reserves anywhere? answer
~Funny bunny [05.02.2009, 10:05]
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things can also adjust via declining price level or wage cuts which boost competitiveness - no need to panic here. answer
~hmm.. [05.02.2009, 10:17]
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funny bunny:

sorry, the previous link is broken. you should go here:

http://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/statis
tika/pangandusstatistika/tabelid/?ok=1


and click

Foreign exchange reserves backing the kroon answer
~billy [05.02.2009, 10:25]
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“If fundamentals are out of line you cannot maintain a fixed exchange rate, you’re going to eventually have a currency crisis,”

No, no, no Mr Roubini; you understand nothing about economic fundamenta. Seems professors in New York University have no clue. In Tartu on the other hand professors understand much better how things work. You should contact your colleague Raul Eamets there and he will explain everything for you. Mr Eamets is a super spetsialist, not only is he an economic professor he is also sitting on the supervisory board of the Estonian central bank!

http://bbn.ee/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=1b5bff60-a86
2-447d-9013-fbb44ebac063
answer
~Dag [05.02.2009, 10:43]
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Thanks Billy, that shows actually a good 'backing'. No need to panic? answer
~Fons [05.02.2009, 10:45]
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Mr Roubini has invariably proved to be right over a 30 month period.
That's more than anyone else just now inc Soros and friends.

When Estonia's reserves run out it will be too late (as usual).
It will be around early summer when that happens if not sooner. answer
~thomas [05.02.2009, 10:49]
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The Estonian reserves for defending the kroon has a value of 6 billion kroon... Swedbank and SEB have outstanding loans in Estonia of 270 billion kroon, that in most cases are actually made in Euro, so the state reserves seem quite pitiful in defend of the kroon.
And as some of the major export markets, Sweden, Norway, Russia, Great Britain all has carried out big devaluations of their currencies recently, Estonia is rapidly loosing trade to those, as the little Estonia can offer has gone far too expensive, due to the crazy rate of the kroon.
So away will go more than a third of all Estonian exports... and as the import is 30% bigger than the export, Estonia are facing very serious trouble indeed.
That the Baltic countries choose not to devaluate, is like when you have a tooth pain, you just take pain killers and refuse to see a dentist, but sooner or later the tooth will rot and cause inflammation and you loose the tooth, and the total pain will be so much bigger, than if you simply went right away and got it over with… and you would most likely keep the tooth... answer
~BD [05.02.2009, 11:02]
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'Estonia's good reputation' lol and pigs can fly. answer
~zeb [05.02.2009, 11:02]
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Wow, this Roubini fella must be a genius, thinking that the all the experts of the IMF got it wrong. answer
~Humvee driver [05.02.2009, 11:44]
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unfortunately Roubini is one of the few economists one should listen to.

that's the first reliable article about possible devaluation I have read on bbn answer
~ubik [05.02.2009, 12:20]
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